NewStats: 3,264,976 , 8,185,248 topics. Date: Friday, 13 June 2025 at 01:53 AM 43d2j

Fxwarrior:


This might still be possible by tomorrow.
Buyers should be cautious.

Weldone sir….pls is it only gold you are trading?? Just one pair?

blackman007:



Weldone sir….pls is it only gold you are trading?? Just one pair?

Yes.

Fxwarrior:



Yes.

Wow… I am trading 3 pairs and I’m kinda thinking it’s not enough

I hope I'll be given a $5k TFT this month having met above 20% profits target in their ongoing competition.

Make Dem do normal this time around o if I reach payout stage.

LincolnOnyeabor:


This is Me.

Made $30 on deriv last night and still blew it all despite telling myself to close for the day.

I feel soooo Ashamed!!!!

I know it is not easy to control personal greed and emotion but with determination, u will come out much stronger. D factors to manage in this business is GREED and EMOTION.

blackman007:



Wow… I am trading 3 pairs and I’m kinda thinking it’s not enough

How good are u d 3 pairs is d main ting. Is good and advisable to master one pair, dinne and wine wit d pair before shifting to anoda.

Here's your institutional-grade market recap and strategy report for DXY, EUR/USD, and Gold, as of June 4, 2025:

## JP Morgan Chase Market Report: June 4, 2025

**Prepared for: Retail Traders Focused on USD & Gold**

**Key Takeaways:**

* **Risk-Off Shift:** A noticeable shift towards risk-off sentiment emerged today following weaker-than-expected US economic data, particularly the ISM Services PMI entering contraction territory. This spurred a rebound in safe-haven assets.
* **USD Weakness:** The US Dollar experienced broad-based weakness against major currencies, particularly the Asian-Pacific bloc, as market participants began to recalibrate Fed rate cut expectations in light of the softer data.
* **Gold Resilience:** Gold demonstrated strong resilience, rebounding from yesterday's dip and holding above key technical levels, primarily driven by renewed safe-haven demand and a weaker USD.
* **ECB in Focus:** Tomorrow's ECB rate decision is the most significant event for the Euro, with a cut widely anticipated, potentially leading to further volatility.
* **NFP on Deck:** The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday remains the week's critical data point, poised to significantly influence USD and Gold trajectories.

---

### 1. Detailed Market Recap: Today's Performance (June 4, 2025)

**DXY (US Dollar Index):**

* **Performance:** DXY experienced a notable decline of approximately -0.41% today, settling around 98.818. This marks a significant reversal after a period of relative strength.
* **Key Price Drivers:**
* **Weak US ISM Services PMI (Actual 49.9 vs. 52 Expected):** This unexpected contraction in the services sector, a critical component of the US economy, was the primary catalyst for today's USD weakness. It significantly dampened the outlook for a robust US economic rebound and reignited expectations for earlier or deeper Fed rate cuts.
* **Lower Treasury Yields:** A downtick in US Treasury yields, partly spurred by the soft economic data and President Trump's renewed pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, reduced the appeal of the USD.
* **Risk-Off Sentiment:** The shift towards a risk-off environment generally weighs on the USD, as capital seeks out perceived safer alternatives like Gold or stronger Asian-Pacific currencies.
* **Technical Levels:**
* **Resistance:** Immediate resistance is seen around **99.10** (intraday high) and further at **99.23** (yesterday's close). A more significant resistance zone lies around **99.80-100.00**.
* **:** Key levels are identified around **98.78** (yesterday's low) and **98.58** (multi-day low). A break below this could open the door for a test of **98.00**.

**EUR/USD:**

* **Performance:** EUR/USD saw a modest gain of approximately +0.03%, trading around 1.14193. While the USD weakened, the Euro's gains were somewhat contained ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision. European stocks closed up 0.70%.
* **Key Price Drivers:**
* **USD Weakness:** The primary driver for EUR/USD's upward movement was the broad-based weakness in the US Dollar, as discussed above.
* **Anticipation of ECB Rate Cut:** While a rate cut by the ECB is broadly expected tomorrow, the market has largely priced this in. However, the exact messaging and future guidance from the ECB press conference will be crucial. Softer Eurozone inflation data (1.9% in May) has reinforced these expectations.
* **Technical Levels:**
* **Resistance:** Immediate resistance is found around **1.1450** and then at **1.1500**.
* **:** Key is at **1.1400** and then at **1.1370**.

**Gold (XAU/USD):**

* **Performance:** Gold futures were up approximately 0.6% in late trading, settling just below $3,400 an ounce, rebounding strongly from yesterday's decline. Spot gold held firm around $3,349.19.
* **Key Price Drivers:**
* **Safe-Haven Demand:** The unexpected miss in US ISM Services PMI and the resulting shift to a risk-off sentiment significantly boosted demand for Gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. Persistent geopolitical tensions also continued to provide underlying .
* **US Dollar Weakness:** A weaker US Dollar makes Gold more attractive for international buyers, as it becomes cheaper in other currency .
* **Fed Rate Cut Expectations:** Renewed expectations for potential Fed rate cuts in 2025 (CME FedWatch indicates 70% probability for two 25 bps cuts) Gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
* **Central Bank Demand:** Central banks continue to be net buyers of gold, with Poland, Czech National Bank, and People's Bank of China notable purchasers in April, indicating a long-term strategic shift away from dollar reserves.
* **Technical Levels:**
* **Resistance:** Immediate resistance is observed at **$3,380**, with a stronger resistance level at **$3,400** (multi-week high). A decisive break above $3,400 could target the April peak of **$3,500**.
* **:** Key lies around **$3,326-$3,324**, followed by **$3,300** and **$3,286-$3,285**. Holding above $3,350 is crucial for maintaining the bullish bias.

---

### 2. Concise Report on Current Market-Moving Events

**Market Sentiment & Capital Flows:**

* **Risk-Off Shift:** Today witnessed a clear shift towards risk-off sentiment after the disappointing US ISM Services data. This led to a flight to safety, benefiting Gold and putting pressure on the USD.
* **Capital Flows:**
* **Gold:** Strong inflows into Gold ETFs continued, with five straight months of inflows, reflecting investor preference for value preservation amid sticky inflation, slowing growth, and equity market volatility. Asian Gold ETFs, particularly Chinese, saw record inflows driven by trade tensions and falling bond yields. Central banks also continue to diversify into gold.
* **USD:** The USD experienced outflows as risk aversion grew and rate cut expectations were brought forward. Asian-Pacific currencies led the charge against the greenback.

**Macroeconomic Catalysts:**

* **US ISM Services PMI (Actual 49.9):** The contraction in this key economic indicator was the most significant macro event today, directly impacting USD weakness and fueling safe-haven demand for Gold.
* **US JOLTS Job Openings (7.39M):** While not as impactful as ISM Services, the JOLTS report, showing an increase in job openings, provided a mixed signal on the labor market, with some analysts noting the highest layoffs in 9 months in the same report. This contributes to uncertainty regarding the Fed's path.
* **Eurozone Inflation (May):** Softer inflation (1.9%) reinforces expectations for an ECB rate cut tomorrow.

**Geopolitical Developments:**

* **US-China Trade Tensions:** President Trump's renewed pressure on China with tough trade remarks and fresh tariffs (doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum imports) are keeping trade war fears alive. A scheduled Trump-Xi call on Friday is highly anticipated and will be a major risk event, bolstering Gold's safe-haven appeal.
* **Middle East and Ukraine-Russia Conflicts:** Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East (Gaza, Iran nuclear tensions) and drone attacks in Ukraine continue to fuel geopolitical uncertainty, providing a consistent underlying bid for safe-haven assets like Gold.
* **US-Canada Trade Deal Optimism:** While there's optimism over a potential US-Canada trade deal ahead of the G7 Summit (June 15-17), this is currently secondary to the more pressing trade tensions with China and broader geopolitical risks.

**Central Bank Signals:**

* **Federal Reserve (Fed):** The weaker US data today has increased the probability of Fed rate cuts in 2025. Market pricing, as per CME FedWatch, suggests a 70% chance of two 25 basis point cuts. Comments from Fed speakers (Bostic, Goolsbee, Cook) will be closely monitored for further clues.
* **European Central Bank (ECB):** Tomorrow's ECB rate decision is the most significant central bank event. A rate cut from 2.25% to 2% on their Deposit Rate is broadly expected. The market will be keenly focused on the accompanying press conference for forward guidance on future monetary policy.
* **Bank of Canada (BoC):** The BoC held rates at 2.75% today.

**Critical Data Releases (Impact on USD & Gold):**

* **Tomorrow (June 5):**
* **ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference (EUR-focused):** This is the key event for EUR/USD. The decision itself is largely priced in, but the guidance will dictate the Euro's reaction.
* **Canadian Ivey PMI (CAD-focused):** While not directly impacting USD/Gold significantly, it will provide insights into North American economic health.
* **Friday (June 7):**
* **US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):** This is *the* data point of the week for USD and Gold. Consensus is for 130K job additions.
* **Strong NFP (>130K):** Would likely lead to a rebound in the USD and pressure on Gold, as it would reduce immediate Fed rate cut expectations.
* **Weak NFP (<100K):** Would likely further weaken the USD and strongly Gold, reinforcing aggressive Fed easing bets.

**Actionable Insights for Retail Traders:**

* **DXY:** The breakdown below key levels following the ISM Services miss suggests further downside potential if data remains weak. Watch for a bounce towards 99.00 as a potential selling opportunity, with downside targets towards 98.50 and potentially 98.00 if NFP disappoints.
* **EUR/USD:** While the ECB cut is expected, the technical levels suggest a cautious approach. A strong dovish message from the ECB tomorrow could limit EUR/USD's upside despite USD weakness. Monitor 1.1450 resistance closely. A clear break above it could signal further strength.
* **Gold (XAU/USD):** The current market environment with elevated geopolitical tensions, ongoing central bank buying, and re-emerging Fed rate cut expectations provides a strong fundamental backdrop for Gold. The metal's resilience today reinforces its safe-haven appeal.
* **Buy on Dips:** Consider buying dips towards the $3,325-$3,330 zone.
* **Breakout Potential:** A decisive break above $3,400 could open the path to $3,500.
* **NFP Volatility:** Be prepared for significant volatility around Friday's NFP report. A weak NFP could provide a strong bullish catalyst, while a strong print might lead to a temporary pullback.

**Institutional Perspective:**

We remain positioned for continued short-term volatility. Our bias remains towards a weaker USD in the medium term, contingent on consistent evidence of a cooling US labor market and inflation. Gold continues to be a crucial portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge in this uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. We are closely monitoring the interplay between trade policy, central bank narratives, and incoming economic data, particularly the NFP, to refine our tactical positions.

Summary of the post above:


Key points:

Economic Events
1. *ECB Rate Decision*: Expected rate cut from 2.25% to 2% on Deposit Rate.
2. *US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)*: Crucial data release on June 7, influencing USD and Gold.

Market Insights
1. *EUR/USD*: ECB rate cut expected, but guidance will dictate Euro's reaction.
2. *Gold*: Strong fundamental backdrop due to geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and potential Fed rate cuts.
3. *USD*: Weakness expected if NFP disappoints.

Trading Strategies
1. *Gold*: Buy on dips towards $3,325-$3,330 zone.
2. *DXY*: Potential downside targets towards 98.50 and 98.00 if NFP disappoints.

The market is closely watching central bank decisions and economic data releases for clues on future monetary policy and economic health.

Trump's phone call with Putin shows that d war continues, is now left for European Union to either back Ukraine or back off

brownemmanuel43:

How good are u d 3 pairs is d main ting. Is good and advisable to master one pair, dinne and wine wit d pair before shifting to anoda.

With my personal approach to trading, I’m really doing good with those three pairs and I never over traded… my favorite pairs XAUUSD, GJ, and GU… I only check those three pairs and trade the cleanest setup only, one trade at a time or 2 trades at a time max… and I risk 0.35% per trade..

Lanshile:
Nzdusd sell
Entry: 0.60024
SL: 50 pips

SL hit

Lanshile:
Buy Eurnzd
Entry: 1.89490
SL: 50 pips

SL hit

Wishing all a happy sallah celebration

Silver creates new all time high

Fxwarrior:


This might still be possible by tomorrow.
Buyers should be cautious.

Dey play.

It's a swing buy in motion. Will probably last months.

The buyers are still pricing the shoe they will use for the marathon in Yaba market, the buy race has not even started

This person dey play

Pipsmarshall1:
This person dey play

Can somebori remind me that name(s) of the so-called new(s) we had today again?

I can't concentrate right now....My heart is pumping too fast... making my head to be very hot 🔥🥵.

Omo since I start dey manage cent to blow come hard. You know say you fit trade even if ya na $1.

Chai dis one na correct game changer for me. I for say make efribody open cent but una go come misunderstand me fah.


Una fit dey call me Cent Papo.Na now forest start.

zedegit:
Omo since I start dey manage cent to blow come hard. You know say you fit trade even if ya na $1.

Chai dis one na correct game changer for me. I for say make efribody open cent but una go come misunderstand me fah.


Una fit dey call me Cent Papo.Na now forest start.

Boss you are not alone oo...👌🏼

Come to me nah...the cent ambassador..😃

It's a must for every trader to always test strategy on cent instead of demo .

Even though I manage big s 💵💵💵, I always test my strategy on a cent before using it in my funded .

It builds your confidence.✅

If you can turn 1$ to 3$, then using that same strategy, you can turn 100$ to 300$ easily....

Forex no suppose hard person if we each do our home work sha...
.
#Salary4life active 💚

BTroMax:
Let this post serve as a reminder 🎗️

I have noticed that we have shifted our goal from a personal funded to the daily chase of prop firm s (.. with new ones coming out each day).

Let not forget our main goal... getting capital from a prop and funding our own broker .

There is peace of mind when you withdraw and get credit alert (same day) within an hour.

Abeg anyone that plan to buy me a prop should credit the fund on my wallet instead... let me increase it in my broker abeg..


No time to check time.

If you have a $100 and you are able to trade $10 profit every day, bro, aside your business profit, Omo you are a BIG boy.

Just be consistent in doing it and you are on your way to #salary4life.


Just my one cent advice though 🙂
..

👌🏼👌🏼

Buying Gold 3354 SL 3339 TP 3600.

Elliotwaveforec:
Buying Gold 3354 SL 3339 TP 3600.

Would have loved to ride this but Omo, I ain't trading till Monday biko.

And there's News tomorrow self.

Let's see by Monday what happens

BTroMax:



Boss you are not alone oo...👌🏼

Come to me nah...the cent ambassador..😃

It's a must for every trader to always test strategy on cent instead of demo .

Even though I manage big s 💵💵💵, I always test my strategy on a cent before using it in my funded .

It builds your confidence.✅

If you can turn 1$ to 3$, then using that same strategy, you can turn 100$ to 300$ easily....

Forex no suppose hard person if we each do our home work sha...
.
#Salary4life active 💚

Na so. Abeg helep me. Make we dey loud am because if to say dem been loud am for me, I for don sabi this business wella.

Dem no know say 0.01 lotsize for standard na 0.1 dollar(10 cents) per pip but 0.01 lotsize for cent na 0.1 cent. How you wan take blow ya $10 ?.

I go dey trade am like this dey go until my enter $1k dols.

You no lie. E dey build confidence. You go dey see 1000 USC ya mind go dey imagine say na 1k dols but na $10 be dat o. I like am like dat.

nzechu:

Dey play.

It's a swing buy in motion. Will probably last months.

The buyers are still pricing the shoe they will use for the marathon in Yaba market, the buy race has not even started

I don't know why you're calling me out even when gold did more than 600 pips dump yesterday.

As a Senior Analyst, Trader, and Head Strategist at JP Morgan Chase, here's my detailed market recap and strategic outlook for DXY and Gold, tailored for a retail trader.

## 1. Detailed Market Recap: DXY and Gold (Yesterday's Performance)

**DXY (US Dollar Index):**

Yesterday, the DXY **experienced a notable decline**, consolidating losses after a bearish reversal mid-week. The index traded broadly lower, with its current value around 98.733, reflecting a -0.05% change in the past 24 hours. Over the past week, it has depreciated by -1.76%.

**Key Price Drivers:**

* **Weak US Economic Data:** A primary driver of DXY weakness was a series of weaker-than-expected US economic data releases. Specifically, disappointing **ADP National Employment Change figures** for May (rising by only 37K vs. estimates of 110K and a revised 60K prior) signaled a slowdown in private hiring. Additionally, soft Services data (likely ISM Services PMI, though specific numbers for yesterday aren't available, general trends suggest a contraction or slowdown) contributed to recession fears.
* **Increased Fed Rate Cut Expectations:** The soft economic data fueled market expectations of earlier and more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This dovish shift in monetary policy outlook directly diminishes the appeal of the USD, as lower interest rates reduce the yield attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.
* **Global Risk-On Sentiment (intermittent):** While general market sentiment remains complex, there were moments of risk-on behavior driven by factors like perceived easing of US-China trade tensions (following reports of calls between Trump and Xi), which can reduce the safe-haven demand for the USD.
* **ECB Rate Decision:** The European Central Bank (ECB) indeed trimmed interest rates as widely anticipated. However, the subsequent communication from ECB President Lagarde, which hinted at the near conclusion of the monetary policy cycle and sounded optimistic about the economic future, led to a sharp *drop in odds for additional rate cuts*. This provided some temporary relief for the Euro against the USD, indirectly weighing on the DXY.

**Technical Levels:**

* **:** The DXY is currently testing a significant **long-term level around 99.000 - 98.000**. This zone has historically acted as a base for bullish reversals, suggesting a potential double bottom formation if it holds. Immediate was observed around **99.300 and 98.800**. A break below 98.000 could open the door for further downside toward 97.50.
* **Resistance:** Key resistance levels yesterday were around **99.800, 100.000, and 100.500**. The index struggled to regain these levels, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The 200-day and 400-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 100.100 and 100.300 respectively also acted as strong overhead resistance.

**Gold (XAU/USD):**

Gold **initially surged** yesterday, topping $3,400 per ounce, but then **eased back** to trade near its daily lows in the $3,340 region. The price is currently around $3,360.57.

**Key Price Drivers:**

* **Weak US Data and Rate Cut Bets:** The same weak US economic data that pressured the DXY provided significant tailwinds for Gold. Weaker employment figures and concerns about economic slowdown increased expectations for Fed rate cuts. As a non-yielding asset, Gold generally benefits from lower interest rates as its opportunity cost decreases.
* **Safe-Haven Demand (initial surge):** Geopolitical concerns, potentially fueled by renewed rhetoric (e.g., reports of renewed tensions between Trump and Musk, which can create broader market unease), provided an initial boost to Gold's safe-haven appeal. However, as trade tensions reportedly eased (Trump-Xi call), some of this safe-haven demand unwound, leading to the pullback.
* **ECB Decision (indirect impact):** While the ECB cut rates, the hawkish tone from Lagarde on future policy reduced the likelihood of further aggressive easing. This, combined with the initial rebound in the Euro against the USD, could have indirectly dampened some of Gold's strength as the USD saw a slight stabilization against certain crosses after its initial dive.
* **Profit-Taking:** After topping $3,400, it's highly likely that some profit-taking occurred, contributing to the pullback, especially given Gold's strong year-to-date performance (up 25%).

**Technical Levels:**

* **:** Gold found around **$3,339.50 and $3,325.60**. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,295.40 also acts as a key level, and the price remains well above all its moving averages on the daily chart, indicating an underlying bullish trend. The $3,300 level has emerged as a crucial psychological zone.
* **Resistance:** Immediate resistance levels were seen at **$3,367.10, $3,382.60, and the daily high of $3,403.55**. Gold struggled to hold above $3,400, indicating this is a significant psychological and technical barrier.

## 2. Concise Report: Current Market-Moving Events (for Retail Traders)

As a retail trader focused on DXY and Gold, here's what you need to be acutely aware of:

**A. Market Sentiment (Risk-on/Off) & Capital Flows:**

* **Current State:** The market sentiment is currently **fragile and prone to shifts**, swinging between risk-on and risk-off. While there was a fleeting risk-on tone yesterday due to perceived easing of US-China trade tensions, the underlying sentiment remains cautious due to persistent inflation concerns and global growth uncertainties.
* **Capital Flows:** We are observing **divergent capital flows**. There's a clear move out of USD-denominated assets due to rising Fed rate cut expectations, pushing capital into other major currencies. Simultaneously, Gold continues to see underlying demand, particularly from central banks (who have been avid buyers, accumulating over 1,150 tonnes in January-September 2024), and from investors seeking a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. However, large institutional players in COMEX futures have shown declining open interest during recent price rallies, suggesting a lack of broad-based for sharp upward moves and potentially increased volatility.

**B. Macroeconomic Catalysts:**

* **US Labor Market Data:** The **Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report (due today, Friday, June 6, 2025)** is the absolute most critical data release. Any deviation from consensus (forecasts around Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.7%, MoM 0.3%, Average Weekly Hours 34.3) will have an outsized impact on DXY and Gold.
* **Strong NFP:** Would bolster the case for a robust US economy, potentially lead to a sharp DXY rebound, and weigh heavily on Gold as Fed rate cut expectations are pushed back.
* **Weak NFP:** Would reinforce recession fears and Fed rate cut expectations, leading to further DXY weakness and a strong rally in Gold.
* **Inflation Data (I/PCE):** inflation prints (I and PCE, when released) will be paramount. Persistent inflation would complicate the Fed's easing path, potentially ing the USD, while a clear deceleration would solidify rate cut bets and boost Gold.
* **GDP Growth:** Q2 GDP growth figures will provide further insights into the health of the US economy, influencing Fed policy expectations.

**C. Geopolitical Developments:**

* **US-China Trade Relations:** Any further developments, positive or negative, regarding trade talks and tariffs between the US and China will significantly impact market sentiment. Easing tensions are risk-on, generally negative for Gold and potentially ive for the USD (if it implies global growth stability). Escalations are risk-off, boosting Gold and potentially weighing on the USD due to economic uncertainty.
* **Ongoing Conflicts (Ukraine-Russia, Middle East):** These remain persistent sources of geopolitical risk. Any escalation would immediately increase safe-haven demand for Gold. De-escalation would likely put downward pressure on Gold.
* **US Election Cycle:** As we approach the US elections, political uncertainty and statements from key figures (like Trump) can trigger market volatility.

**D. Central Bank Signals:**

* **Federal Reserve (Fed):** The Fed's rhetoric is *the* dominant factor for DXY and Gold.
* **Key Focus:** Watch for any Fedspeak (speeches from FOMC , particularly those with voting rights) that clarifies the Fed's stance on future rate cuts. Any hawkish surprises (emphasizing persistence of inflation, less urgency for cuts) will the USD and hurt Gold. Dovish signals (acknowledging economic weakness, readiness to cut) will weaken the USD and Gold.
* **"Higher for Longer" vs. "Pivot":** The ongoing battle between these two narratives will determine the trajectory of the USD and Gold. The current market is heavily skewed towards a "pivot" (rate cuts), making USD vulnerable to hawkish surprises.
* **European Central Bank (ECB):** While the ECB delivered a rate cut, their forward guidance on *future* cuts is crucial. If the ECB signals a slower pace of easing than anticipated, it could lead to further Euro strength against the USD, indirectly weighing on the DXY.

**E. Critical Data Releases (Immediate Horizon - Today/Next Few Days):**

* **Today (Friday, June 6, 2025):**
* **US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP):** As highlighted, this is paramount. Expect significant volatility around its release.
* **Unemployment Rate:** Released concurrently with NFP.
* **Average Hourly Earnings:** Key inflation proxy.
* **Next Week:** Keep an eye out for any revisions to previous data and any scheduled speeches from major central bank officials.

**Actionable Insights for Retail Traders:**

1. **NFP is King Today:** Your primary focus for today should be the NFP report. Develop a clear game plan for both strong and weak outcomes. Given the recent data, any significant upside surprise in NFP could trigger a sharp, quick reversal in DXY.
2. **Volatility is High:** Gold's recent volatility (average daily range expanded to 2.3% from 1.2%) implies larger price swings. Adjust your position sizing and risk parameters accordingly. Options strategies (protective puts, covered calls) can be useful for defined risk exposure in such an environment.
3. **Inverse Correlation, but Nuanced:** While DXY and Gold often have an inverse correlation, that it's not always perfect. Geopolitical events or central bank actions from other economies can sometimes cause deviations.
4. **Monitor Bond Yields:** Closely observe US Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield. Falling yields are generally bullish for Gold (as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset) and bearish for the USD. Rising yields have the opposite effect.
5. **Follow Central Bank Commentary:** Don't just watch data; listen to what central bankers are saying. Their forward guidance often provides more insight into future policy direction than a single data point.
6. **Don't Overlook Technicals:** While fundamentals are driving the current narrative, technical levels (/resistance, moving averages, chart patterns like double bottoms) are crucial for identifying entry and exit points and managing risk. The DXY's current test of strong is a key technical juncture.

**Institutional Grade Analysis takeaway:** The market is currently very sensitive to any data that shifts the Fed's rate cut trajectory. The consensus is leaning dovish, making the USD vulnerable. Gold, while having enjoyed significant safe-haven and disinflationary tailwinds, needs continued Fed dovishness and/or heightened geopolitical risk to sustain its strong upward momentum. Any sign of US economic resilience could quickly reverse recent trends. Be agile and ready to adapt your positions.

As a Senior Analyst and Head Strategist at JP Morgan Chase, my own prediction for the May 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) would factor in the broader economic trends and recent leading indicators, while acknowledging the inherent volatility and potential for surprises.

Given the prevailing sentiment and recent data, **my prediction for the May NFP would be around +115,000 jobs.**

Here's the rationale behind this prediction, leaning slightly more cautious than the general consensus of +127K to +130K:

* **Weakening Economic Momentum:** The recent string of weaker-than-expected economic data, particularly the significant miss in ADP private payrolls (only +37K vs. 110K estimate), is a strong cautionary signal. While ADP isn't a perfect predictor, such a large deviation suggests underlying softening in the labor market that may not be fully captured by the consensus.
* **Services Sector Slowdown (Implicit):** Although specific ISM Services PMI numbers from yesterday aren't available to me in real-time within this simulation, the general narrative has pointed towards a slowdown in the services sector. Given that services typically drive a large portion of job growth, any softness here will naturally weigh on the NFP.
* **Fed's Stance and Market Reaction:** The Federal Reserve has been emphasizing data dependency. A number closer to 115K or even lower would strongly reinforce the market's current dovish bias, pushing rate cut expectations even further forward. As an institution, we are prepared for this scenario, which would likely lead to further USD weakness and Gold strength.
* **Trend Reversion:** While recent NFP prints have been somewhat robust, there's a natural tendency for economic indicators to revert to a slower mean, especially after a period of strong growth. The current economic environment, with lingering inflation and geopolitical tensions, suggests a more moderate pace of hiring.
* **Wage Growth as a Key Detail:** While the headline NFP is crucial, my focus will also be intently on Average Hourly Earnings. If the NFP comes in around +115K but wage growth remains stubbornly high (e.g., above 0.3% MoM), it presents a more complex picture for the Fed and could limit Gold's upside while providing some for the USD if inflation fears persist.

**In summary, while the consensus is aiming slightly higher, I lean towards a print that reflects more of the recent softening in underlying economic activity. A +115,000 NFP figure would represent a noticeable deceleration and would be a strong catalyst for the market to further price in earlier Fed rate cuts, favoring Gold over the DXY.**

However, it is crucial to that NFP is notorious for its surprises. Regardless of our internal prediction, our trading desks will be primed to react swiftly to the actual release and any significant deviations from our forecast, particularly looking for revisions to prior data and the wage growth component.

I still believe the market has an unfinished business at 3290 region.

Whatever it does doesn't change it.

Im in early sells, tp is open watching keenly

Kaesyrn:
The Market doesn’t move in a straight line to one direction‼️

So Why do you vibrate when price is correcting for the next impulse whilst you’re still in profits?

If your Bias & Analysis is correct from the onset
Your Tp will come💯

If you cannot HOLD, you cannot be RICH✔️

#Techriz

Kaesyrn:
Acquiring trading knowledge is easy, the hard part is knowing what to apply and when.

That’s why all true learning happens “in the market.”

The final trading education is received in the arena of risk and reward.

Fxwarrior:


I don't know why you're calling me out even when gold did more than 600 pips dump yesterday.

didn't call u out bro, we are doing analysis here. U drop ur idea I drop my idea.

Who told u gold cant do more pips selling for a swing perspective

People should start posting trade alerts. Instead of motivational quotes now exceeding trade calls. If you will post long write up, post something that will be beneficial, something we can relate with just like the fundamental news being posted by davigle.

We have a lot to learn from each other. Post trade calls. Let our chart and trade calls counter each other.

Our opinion will definitely differ in this game and most traders always stand by their bias. If mine go wrong and yours goes right I can learn from ur call.

The gold diggers in the group are doing wonderfully well by explaining what they expect, entry point before they will enter it but a lot of traders are running away from the primary purpose of the group which I think is post either fundamental or technical analysis to your movement or for learning purpose.

Motivational quote is okay but it won't give us money. If we continue posting motivational quote alone some of us will be here for years wasting away our time.

When gallery easy and other great traders we're still posting trade calls, the call alone is enough to learn. Let's change cos that's the only way to achieve what we are chasing.

Even if you post 20 trade calls and everything goes wrong. My brother there is nothing wrong in that just continue posting it you may even see someone that will guide you the right path