NewStats: 3,264,523 , 8,183,998 topics. Date: Wednesday, 11 June 2025 at 12:01 PM 1n30z

Did you guys see what I am seeing
News trading is seriously maad 😯😀😀

Kaesyrn:
Today's NFP Day, hope Sp₦@m bøt lets me post in peace

Lanshile:
People should start posting trade alerts. Instead of motivational quotes now exceeding trade calls. If you will post long write up, post something that will be beneficial, something we can relate with just like the fundamental news being posted by davigle.

We have a lot to learn from each other. Post trade calls. Let our chart and trade calls counter each other.

Our opinion will definitely differ in this game and most traders always stand by their bias. If mine go wrong and yours goes right I can learn from ur call.

The gold diggers in the group are doing wonderfully well by explaining what they expect, entry point before they will enter it but a lot of traders are running away from the primary purpose of the group which I think is post either fundamental or technical analysis to your movement or for learning purpose.

Motivational quote is okay but it won't give us money. If we continue posting motivational quote alone some of us will be here for years wasting away our time.

When gallery easy and other great traders we're still posting trade calls, the call alone is enough to learn. Let's change cos that's the only way to achieve what we are chasing.

Even if you post 20 trade calls and everything goes wrong. My brother there is nothing wrong in that just continue posting it you may even see someone that will guide you the right path

Aptly put sire, I myself will also try and be posting trade calls here with my charts but specifically swing trades because I day trader more than I swing and it's much faster to post updates on the FTA_tg branch than on the NL branch

Reverseng:
Lol

Inner circle made it so

Look deeper. Don't focus on the clout.
Check his 12 months core mentorship, correlate with your charts, then you'll understand why all was made so

It was purposely made difficult so pearls won't be cast to pigs. So far, pigs prefer mud

Good luck Heatseeker

For which year bossman?

Lanshile:
People should start posting trade alerts. Instead of motivational quotes now exceeding trade calls. If you will post long write up, post something that will be beneficial, something we can relate with just like the fundamental news being posted by davigle.

We have a lot to learn from each other. Post trade calls. Let our chart and trade calls counter each other.

Our opinion will definitely differ in this game and most traders always stand by their bias. If mine go wrong and yours goes right I can learn from ur call.

The gold diggers in the group are doing wonderfully well by explaining what they expect, entry point before they will enter it but a lot of traders are running away from the primary purpose of the group which I think is post either fundamental or technical analysis to your movement or for learning purpose.

Motivational quote is okay but it won't give us money. If we continue posting motivational quote alone some of us will be here for years wasting away our time.

When gallery easy and other great traders we're still posting trade calls, the call alone is enough to learn. Let's change cos that's the only way to achieve what we are chasing.

Even if you post 20 trade calls and everything goes wrong. My brother there is nothing wrong in that just continue posting it you may even see someone that will guide you the right path

More like saying theory is not gonna get us anywhere but practicals

blackman007:






More like saying theory is not gonna get us anywhere but practicals

100 boss

Davigle:


Aptly put sire, I myself will also try and be posting trade calls here with my charts but specifically swing trades because I day trader more than I swing and it's much faster to post updates on the FTA_tg branch than on the NL branch

Looking forward to learning from you boss

blackman007:






More like saying theory is not gonna get us anywhere but practicals

Gbamsolutely

[quote author=Kaesyrn post=135645126][/quote]

Deriv Will whiiineeee you but no panic.

Hi
I do not understand your question
Could you kindly rephrase?

seeteazain:


For which year bossman?

nzechu:

Dey play.

It's a swing buy in motion. Will probably last months.

The buyers are still pricing the shoe they will use for the marathon in Yaba market, the buy race has not even started

In dropping your analysis you should factor what is happening in the short term which is more important. So far gold has dropped over 800pips.

Are you telling us that your Stoploss is 2000 pips? I believe you didn't even see it coming because your comment clearly shows it.

Even if you defer in opinion must you add "Dey play" or you don't know what it means? Dey play means that person is joking or bluffing and I don't bluff when it comes to forecast.

I have posted over 1000pips movements several times here. Not saying that I'm perfect though but then let's be civil.

The escalating feud between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump has introduced significant volatility into the stock market and raised concerns about broader economic implications.

📉 Stock Market Impact

Tesla (TSLA): Shares plummeted by 14% on June 5, erasing approximately $150 billion in market capitalization. This decline was triggered by Musk's public criticism of Trump's new trade tariffs and subsequent threats from Trump to revoke SpaceX's government contracts.

Broader Market Reaction: The dispute has unsettled investors, leading to a 4% drop in Bitcoin and declines across most Asian technology stocks. However, Japan's Nikkei index managed a slight gain of 0.3%.

🌐 Global Economic Concerns

- Recession Warnings: Elon Musk has warned that Trump's new trade tariffs could lead to a U.S. recession in the latter half of 2025. He emphasized that such economic instability would overshadow other developments.

International Trade Tensions: Trump's proposed tariffs, including a 10% levy on all U.S. imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, risk igniting trade wars. These measures could increase consumer prices, reduce GDP, and lead to significant job losses.

🏛️ Political Ramifications
Republican Party Dynamics: The clash has created a rift within the Republican Party, forcing lawmakers to navigate between two influential figures. Musk's suggestion of launching a new political party adds to the uncertainty ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Government Contracts and Subsidies: Trump's threats to cut off Musk's companies from federal contracts and subsidies could have long-term implications for industries reliant on government , including space exploration and electric vehicles

📊 Investor Sentiment

Tesla's Investor Confidence: A Morgan Stanley survey indicated that 85% of respondents believe Musk's political activities are negatively impacting Tesla's business fundamentals. Concerns include potential declines in vehicle deliveries and overall company performance.

🔮 Outlook

The Musk-Trump feud has introduced significant uncertainty into financial markets and the global economy. Investors and policymakers will need to monitor developments closely, as the situation evolves and its full impact becomes clearer.

As a Senior Analyst, Trader, and Head Strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, I'm pleased to provide you with an institutional-grade breakdown of the DXY and gold markets.

***

### 1. This Week's Biggest Market-Moving Stories (June 3 - June 7, 2025)

**A. Economic Headlines:**

* **US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report:** The highly anticipated May NFP report came in better than expected, showing 139,000 new jobs created, suring the forecast of 125,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. This strong jobs data provided for the US Dollar (DXY) on Friday, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate policy.
* **Weak Economic Indicators (Earlier in the week):** Prior to the NFP release, a string of weaker-than-expected economic indicators, including higher weekly jobless claims (247,000 vs. 235,000 forecast) and lower ADP private payrolls (37,000 vs. 115,000 expected), cast doubt on the broader US growth outlook. This initially weighed on the DXY.
* **Inflation Expectations:** US 5-year inflation expectations quickened for the fifth consecutive month to 4.6% in May, the steepest reading since March 1991, signaling persistent inflation concerns.

**B. Political Headlines:**

* **US-China Trade Talks:** Positive developments emerged from US-China trade talks, with President Trump confirming a "very positive" phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This de-escalation of trade tensions generally fosters a "risk-on" sentiment, which can reduce safe-haven demand for gold. Trade discussions are set to continue in London next week.
* **Trump's Fed Criticism:** President Trump continued to exert political pressure on the Federal Reserve, calling for a full-point rate cut despite strong economic data, citing the need to lower borrowing costs on national debt.

**C. Geopolitical Headlines:**

* **Russia-Ukraine Conflict:** Continued heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain a background geopolitical risk, which typically s gold as a safe-haven asset.
* **Israel-Hamas Conflict:** The prolonged conflict in the Middle East also contributes to global uncertainty, providing underlying for gold prices.
* **US Debt Sustainability Concerns:** Moody's recent downgrade of US sovereign credit to Aa1 from Aaa, and the ongoing debate around the newly proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)," have reignited investor concerns debt sustainability. This fuels demand for gold as a store of value.

***

### 2. Detailed Market Recap: DXY and Gold Performance

**A. DXY (US Dollar Index):**

* **Performance:** The DXY experienced a volatile week. It edged lower for most of the week due to earlier weak economic data and lingering concerns about trade tariffs. However, a strong NFP report on Friday fueled a late-week rally, allowing the DXY to recover some losses. Despite Friday's uptick, the DXY is on pace for a marginal weekly loss.
* **Macro Drivers:**
* **Interest Rate Expectations:** The NFP report solidified expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its meeting, providing a temporary boost to the dollar as earlier rate cut expectations were trimmed.
* **Trade Sentiment:** Easing US-China trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar earlier in the week, contributing to its weakness.
* **Fiscal Concerns:** Ongoing concerns debt and the dollar's long-term reserve status continue to be a structural headwind.
* **Technical Moves:**
* The DXY has edged lower over the past few weeks, with a trendline break on May 12 failing to sustain higher prices.
* It continues to hold above the April low around the 98.00 handle.
* Friday's close appears to form a "morningstar" candlestick pattern, hinting at potential upside next week.
* Immediate resistance is at 99.57, followed by the psychological 100.00 level.
* Immediate is at 98.57, then the 98.00 lows.
* The 14-period RSI is eyeing a move above the neutral 50 level, which could signal a change in momentum.
* **Sentiment Shifts:** Sentiment towards the DXY was cautious and somewhat bearish earlier in the week due to weak data and trade uncertainty. The strong NFP report shifted sentiment slightly, providing some near-term and reducing aggressive short positioning. However, broader concerns about trade and fiscal policy still temper a strong bullish outlook.

**B. Gold (XAU/USD):**

* **Performance:** Gold surrendered most of its early-week gains on Thursday and Friday, retracting from highs around $3400/oz. However, it is still poised to end the week with overall gains of approximately 0.83% to 1.30%, despite the late-week pullback. At the time of writing, gold is trading around $3317/oz.
* **Macro Drivers:**
* **Weaker USD (earlier in week):** Gold benefited from a weaker dollar earlier in the week due to mixed US economic data.
* **Safe-Haven Demand:** Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas) and concerns debt sustainability continued to fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
* **Rising Treasury Yields (late week):** The strong NFP report pushed US Treasury yields higher (10-year yield surged to 4.51%), increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, which led to its late-week decline.
* **Central Bank Buying:** Expectations of continued significant central bank gold purchases (estimated 1,000 metric tonnes in 2025) provide structural for gold prices.
* **Technical Moves:**
* Gold touched $3400/oz on Thursday before correcting.
* It has fallen to a four-day low around $3316 but holds above the crucial $3300 floor.
* The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted bearish, suggesting potential for further losses.
* The overall trend remains bullish as long as it holds above $3300.
* A clear break above $3360 could pave the way to retest the week's peak of $3403 and potentially $3450.
* A break below $3300 could open the path to $3250.
* **Sentiment Shifts:** Sentiment for gold was strongly bullish earlier in the week driven by geopolitical concerns and a weaker dollar. The strong NFP data and subsequent rise in yields led to profit-taking and a tempering of bullish sentiment, as hopes for immediate Fed rate cuts diminished. De-escalation of US-Sino trade tensions also reduced some safe-haven demand.

***

### 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report & ETF Flows

**A. Gold:**

* **Commitment of Traders (COT) Report (as of May 30, 2025 data, released June 6, 2025):**
* **Speculative (Non-Commercial) Positioning:** Net long positions for gold speculators increased to 174.2K from 164.0K the previous week. This indicates that large speculators have been adding to their bullish bets on gold.
* **Commercial (Hedger) Positioning:** Commercial traders, who typically hedge against price risks, generally take positions contrary to prevailing market trends. While specific numbers for commercial positioning were not directly provided, the increase in speculative net longs implies that commercials likely reduced their net short positions or added to net longs, reflecting their hedging activities.
* **Signal:** The increase in speculative net longs suggests a continued bullish sentiment among large money managers. However, as speculators become increasingly long, it can sometimes indicate a crowded trade, which might precede a correction if sentiment shifts or fundamentals change.
* **ETF Flows:**
* **Recent Flows (May/Early June):** Gold-backed ETFs globally reported modest outflows of 19 tonnes ($1.8 billion) in May, breaking a five-month streak of inflows. US funds were the primary drivers of these outflows, decreasing their holdings by 15.6 tonnes. Asian funds also saw outflows of -4.8 tonnes.
* **Cumulative Flows:** Despite recent outflows, overall flows into gold-backed funds remain positive for the year at 322 tonnes, suggesting a strong underlying demand.
* **Signal:** The recent outflows in May suggest some profit-taking by investors, likely triggered by the consolidation in gold prices and an easing of trade war tensions, which increased risk appetite. However, the World Gold Council suggests these outflows might be short-lived due to growing stagflation worries and US debt concerns. European funds saw inflows due to sluggish economic growth, tariff threats, and fiscal concerns.

**B. US Dollar:**

* **Commitment of Traders (COT) Report (as of June 3, 2025, released June 6, 2025):**
* **Speculative (Non-Commercial) Positioning:** The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a net long position of 113. This indicates a very slight bullish bias among large speculators for the US dollar, though the number itself suggests a relatively neutral or slightly positive positioning compared to other currencies.
* **Commercial (Hedger) Positioning:** Commercials typically hold the opposite side of speculators.
* **Signal:** The relatively small net long speculative position for the USD suggests that large speculators are not overwhelmingly bullish or bearish on the dollar, implying a degree of uncertainty or balanced views. The broader sentiment throughout the week, prior to Friday's NFP, likely leaned more neutral to slightly negative, indicating that the market was wary of further aggressive dollar longs.
* **ETF Flows:**
* **US Equities Mutual Fund and ETF Flows (Proxy for broader USD sentiment):** US Equities Mutual Fund and ETF flows were at $673.00 million for the week ending May 21, 2025, a significant decrease from $11.91 billion the prior week. This suggests a notable pullback in overall investment into US equity instruments, which can indirectly reflect a less robust sentiment towards the US dollar given the intertwined nature of the capital markets.
* **Signal:** The sharp decline in equity ETF flows indicates a general cooling of risk appetite and a cautious stance among investors regarding US assets, which could translate to less demand for the dollar.

***

### 4. Week's Key Events (June 10 - June 14, 2025)

**A. Key Economic Releases (Tentative Dates):**

* **US Consumer Price Index (I) Figures:** This will be the most critical economic release, providing a key update on inflation. A higher-than-expected I could bolster the DXY and potentially weigh on gold as it would signal less room for Fed rate cuts. Conversely, a weaker I could gold and put pressure on the DXY.
* **US Producer Price Index (PPI):** PPI data provides insight into inflationary pressures at the producer level, which can eventually feed into consumer prices.
* **University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment:** This report gives a snapshot of consumer confidence, which can influence spending and economic activity.
* **Federal Reserve Blackout Period:** Fed speakers will enter their blackout period ahead of the June 17-18 FOMC meeting, meaning no direct guidance from officials. Markets will thus be more sensitive to economic data.

**B. Political Events:**

* **US-China Trade Talks (London, June 9):** Further discussions between US and Chinese officials could lead to breakthroughs or setbacks, directly impacting global risk sentiment and the DXY. Positive progress could reduce safe-haven demand for gold, while renewed tensions could boost it.

**C. Geopolitical Events:**

* **Ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas Conflicts:** Any significant escalation or de-escalation in these conflicts will continue to influence safe-haven demand for gold.
* **Developments on US Debt/Fiscal Policy:** Further news or political rhetoric regarding US government debt and fiscal policies could impact the dollar's perceived stability and thus gold's appeal.

***

### 5. Step-by-Step Forecast of Gold's Trend for Next Week

**A. Layered Analysis:**

1. **DXY Price Structure, 10-Year Treasury Yield, and Real Yields:**
* **DXY:** Despite Friday's NFP-driven bounce, the DXY's overall trend has been lower in recent weeks, failing to sustain above key technical levels after a trendline break. The "morningstar" candlestick pattern suggests a potential for a short-term rebound, but unless it clears significant resistance (99.57, 100.00) and reverses the broader downtrend, its upside may be limited. A stronger DXY typically pressures gold.
* **10-Year Treasury Yield:** The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.51% on Friday following the NFP report. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, thus generally correlating negatively with gold prices. The trajectory of yields next week, largely dependent on inflation data and Fed expectations, will be crucial.
* **Real Yields:** Real yields (nominal yield adjusted for inflation) have also risen in tandem with nominal yields. As real yields increase, the attractiveness of gold diminishes. Persistent high inflation expectations, however, could temper the impact of rising nominal yields on real yields, offering some to gold. The current environment of sticky inflation alongside rising nominal yields creates a complex dynamic.

2. **Geopolitical Risks, ETF Flows, and COT Data:**
* **Geopolitical Risks:** The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in Eastern Europe and the Middle East continue to underpin gold's safe-haven appeal. Any escalation would likely provide further .
* **ETF Flows:** While May saw modest outflows from gold ETFs, particularly in the US, cumulative year-to-date flows remain strongly positive. This suggests that despite short-term profit-taking, institutional and retail interest in gold as a long-term asset remains robust. The World Gold Council's view on short-lived outflows due to stagflation worries s this.
* **COT Data (Gold):** The latest COT report shows increased net long speculative positioning in gold. This indicates strong conviction among large money managers for higher gold prices. While a crowded long trade can sometimes be a contrarian indicator, it also reflects strong institutional buying interest.

**B. Concluding Data-Backed Directional Bias for Gold:**

Given the layered analysis, my directional bias for gold (XAU/USD) for the week is **NEUTRAL to SLIGHTLY BEARISH in the near-term, with underlying BULLISH .**

**Reasoning:**

* **Near-term Headwinds:**
* **Resurgent USD (Post-NFP):** The stronger-than-expected NFP report has reduced immediate Fed rate cut expectations and bolstered the DXY on Friday. If this momentum continues into early next week, and particularly if the I data is strong, it will likely lead to further dollar strength and higher Treasury/real yields, creating a headwind for gold.
* **Profit-Taking & Technicals:** Gold's recent retreat from its highs and the bearish shift in the RSI suggest potential for further short-term consolidation or a deeper pullback as profit-taking continues.
* **Improved Trade Sentiment:** The positive developments in US-China trade talks could reduce some of the safe-haven demand that has been ing gold.

* **Underlying :**
* **Persistent Geopolitical Risks:** The inherent safe-haven demand stemming from ongoing conflicts remains a significant underlying bullish factor for gold.
* **Central Bank Demand:** Continued strong central bank purchases globally provide a solid floor for gold prices.
* **Stagflation Concerns & US Debt:** Rising inflation expectations combined with concerns growth and debt sustainability reinforce gold's role as an inflation hedge and store of value.
* **Positive YTD ETF Flows & Speculative Positioning:** Despite recent short-term outflows, the overall positive year-to-date ETF flows and the sustained net long speculative positioning indicate strong underlying demand and institutional conviction for gold on a medium-to-long term horizon.

**In summary:** Gold is likely to face some near-term pressure if the dollar extends its post-NFP gains and if inflation data s a "higher for longer" Fed narrative. However, significant geopolitical risks, long-term inflation concerns, and persistent institutional demand (as indicated by COT and YTD ETF flows) will likely prevent a sustained sharp decline. We anticipate a period of consolidation with a potential for downside towards key levels if the macro data strengthens the dollar, but with strong underlying bids on any significant dips. Retail traders should watch the $3300 level closely for and the I data for directional cues.

You can never force the market to BUY.

You can never force the market to SELL.

STOP TRYING TO FORCE IT TO BUY. STOP TRYING TO FORCE IT TO SELL.

Just wait, PATIENTLY, for THE OBVIOUS and then TRADE IT.

This journey still far

Fxwarrior:


In dropping your analysis you should factor what is happening in the short term which is more important. So far gold has dropped over 800pips.

Are you telling us that your Stoploss is 2000 pips? I believe you didn't even see it coming because your comment clearly shows it.

Even if you defer in opinion must you add "Dey play" or you don't know what it means? Dey play means that person is joking or bluffing and I don't bluff when it comes to forecast.

I have posted over 1000pips movements several times here. Not saying that I'm perfect though but then let's be civil.

oga don't take it so seriously

Na analysis we de do, it either plays or it doesn't. No vex

That your 600 pips sell would most likely be sured.

Kaesyrn:
Your employer owns your job.

The economy owns your career.

But trading skills are yours forever.

No application needed.

No interview.

No one else's approval.

No AI can replace your market edge.

No recession can eliminate your opportunities.

Once you learn to trade, you have true freedom.

Kaesyrn:
Weekend are for synthetics,

Currently on Vix100(1s)

#VIX100(1s) 🔭

Currently at the expansion candle from D1

We'd have to go to LTF to get an entry on this all the way down to take out the CANDLE RANGE LOW.

If this plays out gonna be really massive drop 👌

---

#VIX100(1s) H4

Previous candle formed a bearish engulfing, we need the current H4 candle to have a body close below 500 for confirmation to the downside.

Still watching 🔭

---

Selling from Opening price

#VIX100(1s): SELL 🔽

🕯 Entry price: 500
⛔️ Stop loss: 520
💵 Take profit: 475
💵 Take profit: 450

Trade now! 👑

Trading signals, while expertly curated, aren't fail-safe; proceed with caution.

---

Moving now 🤞
Cc.
@LincolnOnyeabor

The market is indeed a jungle...unpredictable and wild. But , within every chaotic movement and every challenging trade lies a hidden lesson.

Embrace each loss not as a failure, but as a crucial stepping stone on your unique path to mastery.

Keep analyzing, keep learning, and keep adapting. Your resilience is your greatest asset.

Happy Weekend!

Fix your system, and your psychology will be handled.

The emotions never really goes away.

[quote author=Kaesyrn post=135659334][/quote]

Saw this last night but didn't get to my entry.

Thanks very much boss and sweet ride!

Kaesyrn:


TP 1 SMASHED

Cc
@LincolnOnyeabor

Kaesyrn:

Results from those who took on TG

You can via my link

The markets is simple but not easy.

Play what's the outlook for gold this coming week

Petah:
The markets is simple but not easy.

In your opinion sir, is there ever a time when the market becomes easy?

nzechu:
Play what's the outlook for gold this coming week

XAUUSD GOLD BUYS

blackman007:



In your opinion sir, is there ever a time when the market becomes easy?

Nope. I believe you just get better at understanding your system. It doesn't still mean you won't get Hit (SL) every now and then but fewer.
The market is very dynamic because of the influence of Macroeconomics.